COP29 begins: what can we expect?

World leaders will gather at COP29, already known as the Finance COP, with the mission to renew efforts and resources to curb climate change.

In the global fight against climate change, the Conferences of the Parties (COP) play a fundamental role. These annual meetings, organised by the United Nations, bring together leaders from around the world to discuss and coordinate actions to curb global warming. Since the first COP in Berlin in 1995, these meetings have been the scene of historic agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, which have marked significant milestones in international climate policy.

Now, in the run-up to COP29, the world is preparing for another defining moment. This time, the conference will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11-22 November.

At COP28, a historic agreement was reached that established the "beginning of the end" of fossil fuels. The climate summit also agreed to triple renewable energy by 2030, double energy efficiency, build resilient food systems and accelerate the development of low-carbon transport, among others. At COP29, countries must account for the progress they’ve made in meeting these goals.

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Climate change impact calls for more urgent and ambitious action

What makes this COP29 in Baku particularly crucial is the global context in which it is taking place. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80 % chance that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed pre-industrial levels (the limit set by the Paris Agreement) by 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years.

This increase is linked to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as devastating forest fires, record heat waves or more intense hurricanes. One of the most recent has been the DANA (isolated depression at high levels) that has affected eastern and southern Spain, causing floods, more than 200 deaths and extensive property damage.

The scientific consensus underlines the urgency of immediate action, and the world expects this conference to inspire more ambitious and concrete commitments. Climate summit chair Mukhtar Babayev makes this clear in his first official letter to parties and stakeholders at the event.

The pledges made so far, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are still insufficient to limit global warming to safe levels. Moreover, they must be updated every five years and the next deadline comes just months after COP29. "This means that the UN summit in Baku will be the last major opportunity to set clear expectations about what this next generation of NDCs should aim for," says the World Resources Institute.

As we approach mid-century, the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 becomes an inescapable challenge. While some countries have made significant progress in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions, others continue to lag behind, putting global targets at risk. Effective implementation and rigorous enforcement of policies will be essential to achieve these goals. And to achieve this, financing will be indispensable.

COP29: towards a new global financial commitment

The Baku summit has been dubbed the "COP of Finance". In the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to set a new collective quantified climate finance target for 2024, replacing the current annual $100 billion (which is already insufficient).

The New Quantified Collective Goal (NCQG) is designed to establish a financial framework to support developing nations in their efforts to mitigate climate change. It provides access to resources to move towards low-carbon, climate-resilient economies.

The NCQG must be ambitious but realistic, balancing the financial capacities of developed countries with the urgent needs of developing nations. According to the World Economic Forum, the donor base is unclear. That is, the status of some countries that have achieved great economic development in recent times, but are still considered developing nations rather than donors, such as China, is still under debate. These will be issues to be addressed during COP29.

More resources for loss and damage

Another economic issue in the spotlight at COP29 is the Loss and Damage Fund, an initiative designed to provide financial support to developing countries suffering from the adverse effects of climate change, such as sea level rise, flooding and other extreme events.

At COP28, after years of arduous negotiations, an agreement was reached to activate this fund. However, so far, countries' financial commitments amount to only $700 million. This is a far cry from the $580 billion in climate-related damages that developing countries could face by 2030. This mismatch highlights the urgent need for world leaders to come to COP29 with concrete plans to increase their contributions to the Loss and Damage Fund.

Other eagerly awaited issues include the regulation of carbon markets, adaptation and food security plans and, of course, establishing how to move away from fossil fuels.

With these issues on the table, COP29 has the potential to be a turning point in global climate action to promote concrete solutions and strategic partnerships for a more sustainable future.

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